Based on a new report from the Energistyrelsen energy agency, the share of fossil fuels being used by the transportation sector will remain largely unchanged in 2030 compared to now.
The report (here in Danish) showed that the transport sector’s fossil fuel consumption will only drop from 95 to 92 percent by 2030 – and that’s even if the railroad is electrified and every tenth car runs on electricity.
The report suggests that Danes will indeed produce more green energy than they can consume by 2030, but predicts that Denmark will fail to live up to its international obligations regarding sustainable energy in transport.
“The report shows that the share of sustainable energy in transport is rising, but will still make up a smaller share of transport’s energy consumption … fuel consumption for aviation is expected to be 100 percent fossil fuel-reliant throughout the period,” the report stated.
Struggle to meet obligations
Road transportation is expected to make up 73 percent of the sector’s overall fossil fuel consumption, and that’s despite electric and plug-in hybrid cars making up 22 percent – the equivalent of 300,000 – of all private car and van sales by 2030.
The report also underlined that Denmark will fail to live up to EU greenhouse emission obligations thanks to non-quota-encompassing sectors such as transport and agriculture. The Danes will already struggle to meet EU goals by 2021.
Where are the benefits?
Energistyrelsen contends there are not enough incentives in place to prompt consumers to choose an electric car instead of a petrol car. Both types are expected to drop by 20 percent in price, and even more for diesel cars.
The Danes are buying bigger cars too. The market share of micro cars has fallen from 30 to 11 percent in just five years, while the SUV share has shot up to 26 percent over the same period.
A number of the report’s findings are based on the results of no new initiatives being ushered in by the politicians and the industry.