Beware of opinion polls –exit or otherwise

(photo: istock) (photo: istock)
May 15th, 2015 7:00 pm| by Ejvind Sandal
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Last week we saw the UK go to the ballots. Apart from the election of the husband of our prime minister, Mr Kinnock, the outcome came as something of a surprise: the Tories have it.

Nevertheless, what was more surprising was how the electorate cheated the opinion polls and voted unexpectedly. We wonder if this could happen here as well.

Blue back in front
For two years, the blue bloc has been in the lead: by a lead ranging from a few seats to as many as 20, which is a lot in our parliamentarian situation where a small party with four to ten seats could swing the result.

Konservative is struggling to lift off, even with a new chairman on board. They fear they’ll get under six seats and don’t really hold much hope for more than nine. They are campaigning on old values.

Liberal Alliance has higher hopes and has sat a rather progressive program up. They tend to attract a number of stray votes from Venstre.

Venstre, meanwhile, is suffering from the noise stirred up by its leader and former prime minister, Lars Løkke Rasmussen. He has been attacked for his poor bookkeeping skills and his somewhat less than modest personal spending.
Dansk Folkeparti is looking around for guidance on its anti-EU and anti-immigration policy. In Norway its sister party got into government. In Sweden it certainly did not, and in the UK, it could not deliver on Election Day. Our feeling is that the party will end up outside the government but claiming its pound of flesh for supporting a blue government. For now, it is keeping its options open.

Red at the rear
On the red side, the suspense is if Enhedslisten (extreme left) can continue with Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen as their ‘spokesperson’, who alone tends to attract a record number of personal votes, or whether she will cease to be the leader as part of the party’s rotation principle.

Socialistic Folkeparti (socialist) are still licking their wounds from being government material last time, and they are only slowly regaining weight.
Socialdemokraterne are trailing behind, even though the PM has lately gained some speed. Still she’ll have to recover from an all-time low, which won’t be easy.
Radikale (liberal left) will continue to be right at the balance. Even with the loss of its leader, Margrethe Vestager, who used to run the whole show, they have for almost 100 years been the decisive pivot in Danish policy, and so it seems they will this time.

DR recently by mistake announced that the election will be on June 9 – they still may be right. But beware of opinion polls.

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