Expect the unexpected
In 2020 nothing particular is going to happen. But then again, who knows?
So far, the government’s stance on climate is mostly hot air. It might end up banning plastic bags and taxing air tickets, and making it more advantageous to choose electric cars over petrol, but nothing overly consequential will happen – not while the PM favours policies with no cost to consumers and taxpayers.
Affecting real change is unrealistic at present.
The key is in the centre
The key question will revolve around which parties are prepared to back Socialdemokratiet’s climate policy and back the tough measures needed to cut CO2 by 70 percent by 2030. Pandering to the far left (or the right) will only muck the waters and increase the possibility that the climate policy won’t see out the decade.
To effect binding change, the government needs to reach across the centre to Venstre and Konservative and with Radikale form a solid 70 percent majority.
A left bloc coalition will leave the government vulnerable to protests and standalone positions, handing power over to marginal parties that don’t advocate for the concerns of the majority.
It would be a mistake as the popular movement to support these steps is gaining momentum. The public want less meat-sourced protein in their diet, fewer air journeys, less disposable plastic, environmental heating, more public transport and electric cars, and lots of measures to cut down on transport.
The government has to ask if effective climate policy is possible without harsh legislation? Are they prepared to cut spending on welfare? Because that’s what it might take.
More hands to the pump
Another issue at hand is the dwindling population. Immigration has been kept down to a minimum since the migrant crisis in 2015. The shock of seeing the refugees on the motorway hasn’t gone away.
But in order to carry the burden of CO2 emission reduction without the loss of prosperity, we need growth and that means more skilled people.
Again, a centre coalition is needed to ease the strong measures against foreigners. Meanwhile the EU will have to come to terms with a liveable policy so we can adapt a flexible model.
That aside we must hope for more refugee quotas – at a time when there sadly seems to be more than ever in need of a new home.
Easy route for PM?
Will cannabis for recreational use be legalised in 2020? Probably not, even though most people know it is high time given the gang wars fought over various territories and the strain it places on the police force.
Will tax reform reduce the burden of the high earners? Probably not as the government will be busy tiding up the tax administration, not to mention the new evaluation system on property that will bring the nation to the barricades no matter what it includes.
The blue bloc will spend the year licking their wounds – their sights are already set on 2023 or 2024. As long as she doesn’t attempt anything too daring, the PM will sail with good winds – at least for another year.
Happy New Year!