Judging by the evacuation chaos taking place in Kabul at the moment, there is little doubt that the coalition has vastly overestimated the ability of the Afghan army to keep the Taliban at bay.
Now the Danish Defence Intelligence Service (FE) has admitted that it did not predict that Kabul would fall into the hands of the Taliban with such haste.
In fact, FE revealed that it didn’t foresee the Afghan capital capitulating this year at all.
“It wasn’t a surprise that Kabul fell, but rather the speed at which it occurred is something we didn’t deem likely,” said Svend Larsen, the acting head of FE.
“We based our evaluations on the intelligence we had at our disposal from our own sources and international partners, but our estimations have been proven too optimistic.”
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Learning from mistakes
In a briefing to Parliament as recently as August 9, FE stated that it was relatively unlikely that Kabul would fall in 2021.
FE stated that it would use the experiences gleaned from Afghanistan to improve its internal workings.
“There have been special challenges in terms of the situation in Afghanistan because access to information has been weakened as a result of the coalition’s withdrawal. These conditions, however, do not change the fact that we must learn from the developments.”
