No end to above average inflation – Nationalbanken

Ben Hamilton
March 15th, 2023

Central bank revises forecast to predict an overall rate of 3.6 percent for 2024 – over double its previous estimate

Still high! (photo: Danmarks Statistik)

Inflation will not return to normal next year, a new Nationalbanken forecast predicts.

Last autumn, its experts said they expected inflation to steadily fall in 2023 to the extent that by 2024 it would be little more than 1.7 percent – an estimate more or less in line with the so-called Wise Men (vismændenes), who said it would only be 0.8 percent. 

But Nationalbanken’s latest forecast concludes it will be more than double its previous prediction at 3.6 percent.

Still, there was a positive revision. The overall inflation rate for 2023 will be 4.0 percent, predicts Nationalbanken, not 4.3 percent as previously forecast. 

Tough for property owners
Far from being the year in which everything returns to normal, 2024 is looking like it will be another financially challenging year for homeowners.

Following an anticipated decrease of 9.4 percent in 2023, they can expect the value of their properties to continue falling in 2024, according to Nationalbanken, with no increase likely until 2025 at the earliest. Meanwhile, interest rates will continue to remain high.

Conversely perhaps, the continuing inflation will not be helped by the expected wage increases that will soon be ushered in by the collective bargaining agreements, although care is being taken to make sure there isn’t a dreaded wage-price spiral, noted Nationalbanken.

“Inflation now appears to have peaked. The high price increases for energy are on the way down. On the other hand, there is a prospect of higher wage increases. They will keep inflation up for a few more years,” explained Christian Kettel Thomsen, the chief executive of Nationalbanken.


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