I grew up with Ronald Reagan and was young under Bill Clinton. In their own way, they represented a strong and trustworthy United States. The beacon of the free world.
Today, I look less fondly at the United States and marvel at the gap that divides the country between Republicans and Democrats.
Bad manners don’t bode well
It is not only in Denmark, but in most of Europe, that we’re not charmed by Donald Trump. He talks trash, talks nasty about political opponents and seems to give a damn about facts. All things we’ve been brought up to that you should not do.
Further, we do not see the big fuzz in electing a female head of state.
We do not believe that the conflict in the Middle East and in Ukraine can be resolved with a snap of a finger.
We are pragmatists and struggle with seeing things from both sides. It is actually a core value for many Europeans, especially in Scandinavia.
Welcome to all new internationals!
If Kamala Harris wins the election, we join the jubilation and breathe a sigh of relief. It will be easy – and maybe some even recall the moment in 2008 when Barack Obama was elected and we thought we were really moving on.
Wary of Ukraine
But the crisis in American democracy is much more serious now than it was 16 years ago, and Harris will find it difficult to implement big changes.
If Trump wins, how do we stand in Denmark?
Immediately, we will try to ensure that the US still gets involved in supporting Ukraine. If Trump plans to reduce or withdraw American support for Ukraine’s freedom struggle, it will put European countries under great pressure.
It will be tough for Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, who personally is involved in the fight for Ukraine and spearheaded very large grants for the war in Ukraine.
Keep your hands off Greenland
Back in 2019, Mette Frederiksen had to reject Trump’s wish to buy Greenland. A very rude offer for the Danes and Greenlanders to decline, which led Trump to call Denmark’s prime minister “a nasty woman”.
The challenge for official Denmark is simply that, right after World War II, the USA has been our best friend – and protector against the threat from the East.
Denmark has increased its defense budget, so we meet the requirement of 2 percent of our GDP for NATO.
This is not where the problem lies. Although it will be difficult to get used to the brusque tone and lack of interest in Europe that Trump represents.
Trump’s announcements about high tariff walls might be the most worrying.
Afraid of a global Trade War
To protect American companies and employees, Trump has announced tariffs of 10, 20 and 60 percent. on goods from abroad.
“This is serious for the world economy and will have a hard impact on the Danish economy. We are actually among those who are hit the hardest,” says Peter Bay Kirkegaard, senior chief consultant in Danish Industry to Børsen.
In an analysis, Danish Industry draws a bleak prospect: If a future President Trump introduce, as announced, 60 per cent. punitive duties on goods from China and 10 per cent. tariffs on European and Danish goods, Danish economy must brace a cocktail of miseries.
Not only will the EU be thrown into a trade war with the US, as the union will be forced to introduce countermeasures to the punitive tariff.
The high tariffs against China will simultaneously mean that cheap Chinese goods will “flood” the European market to an extent that undermines the competitiveness of European companies.
Danish companies will have to reconsider strategy
Then the EU will also have to increase the tariffs on Chinese goods, according to the analysis.
A global trade war will quickly start, which could be costly in many countries.
The USA is Denmark’s largest export market. In 2023, Denmark had a total export income of DKK 292.1 billion. DKK, corresponding to 15.3 per cent. of Denmark’s total export revenue.
This will cause many Danish companies, not least in the pharmaceutical industry, to rethink their strategy and put a damper on growth.
Denmark is a small and open economy. A trade war with the US and China will cost many jobs.
Still, it is in our nature to adapt. If Trump wins, we will put up a brave face, eventually. Polls here and in Norway have indicated that approximately 90 percent of us would vote for Kamala Harris.
Come rain or sunshine, the sun also rises on Wednesday morning.