Up in 2015: Exports, consumption, employment and house prices

Denmark’s economic crystal ball is showing a particularly rosy picture this year

Jan 10, 2015

Companies and commentators are optimistic about the Danish economy in 2015. If predictions are to be believed, the economy will grow, boosted by increased exports and private consumption. What’s more, jobs will be created and house prices will rise by between 2 and 4 percent.

Exports and consumption
According to an analysis conducted by the consulting firm Wilke for Jyllands-Posten, both exports and domestic private consumption will increase for the first time in recent years.

Peter Bojsen Jakobsen, an economist at Sydbank, told Jyllands-Posten that this combination looks set to give the economy a welcome push. “Companies are geared to increase their exports,” he said.

“Their competitive position is stronger than it has been for many years. At the same time a healthier economy on the home front will slowly get consumption up in a higher gear.”

Growth and jobs
The industrial advocates Dansk Industri (DI) have also taken the temperature across Danish business life. Some 60 percent of Danish companies are expecting an increase in turnover in 2015, and a third expect to be able to take on more staff.
Michael Meineche, who is behind the DI analysis, thinks that 2015 could be a turnaround after some sluggish months. “There has been a slowdown in the Danish economy,” he said.
“But we hope that it has just been a setback that pushed progress back by a couple of quarters. I’ll put my neck out and say that 2015 will be a year of growth.”

House prices
When it comes to the housing market, the verdict seems to be unanimous: prices will rise. Børsen surveyed 20 leading economists and all of them predicted increases in 2015.
Most of the economists expect an increase of between 2 and 4 percent. But there is disagreement about the extent to which this will apply from region to
region.
Lone Kjærgaard, a chief economist at Arbejdernes Landbank, predicts a rise of 2.5 percent across the country on both flats and houses. “The housing market will be backed by the fact there has already been significant increases in cities,” she told the newspaper.
“We expect this to spread further out in 2015. On top of that, interest rates are at a historic low, and in many places we believe that prices have yet to react positively to this.”
But other commentators, such as Jyske Bank’s chief economist Niels Rønholt, question the extent of growth outside the big cities. “Again in 2015 it won’t make sense to talk about one housing market in Denmark,” he said.
“In the capital and the other big cities, prices will surely increase, but in many other places, there is a risk of prices falling. It’s a natural consequence of the moving trend from the country to the
city.”

Companies’ predictions: