Even stevens in last-minute poll before Danish General Election

Three days til the election and new figures reveal a stalemate between the red and blue block

It promises to be an exciting final sprint heading into the final week of the Danish General Election, as politicians make their final push ahead of the nation’s verdict at the polls this Thursday.

There are now just three days until election day and the figures reveal a dead heat between the red and blue blocs, according to the latest Voxmeter poll.

While the red bloc remains the favourite with 50.3 percent of the vote, the blue bloc is only a little behind on 49.5 percent.

This gives Prime Minister Helle Thorning-Schmidt (S) and the rest of the red bloc 88 seats, while Venstre leader Lars Løkke Rasmussen and his allies hold 87 seats.

The poll currently stands as follows:

– Socialdemokraterne: 26.9 pct/ 47 mandates (24.8 pct in 2011 – 2.1 GAIN)
– Venstre: 22.4 / 40 (26.7 – 4.3 LOSS)
– Dansk Folkeparti: 16.2 / 29 (12.3 – 3.9 GAIN)
– Enhedslisten: 7.6 / 13 (6.7 – 0.9 GAIN)
– Liberal Alliance: 7.5 / 13 (5.0 – 2.5 GAIN)
– Socialistisk Folkeparti: 6.6 / 12 (9.2 – 2.6 LOSS)
– Radikale: 4.6 / 8 (9.5 – 4.9 LOSS)
– Alternativet: 4.6 / 8 (4.6 GAIN)
– Konservative: 2.7 / 5 (4.9 – 2.2 LOSS)
– Kristendemokraterne: 0.7 / 0 (0.8 – 0.1 LOSS)
– Others: 0.1 / 0 (-)  (0.1 GAIN)

Red bloc: 50.3 percent/ 88 mandates

Blue bloc: 49.5 percent/ 87 mandates

Voxmeter’s survey was conducted among 1,033 voters during the period June 12-14.

As always, there is some statistical uncertainty, and Voxmeter has calculated it to be between 0.2 and 2.7 percentage points.

Support parties criticising Thorning-Schmidt
However, with the campaign drawing to a close, Thorning-Schmidt has come under fire, as support parties SF and Enhedslisten criticise the government for not giving a clear answer as to who is affected by the reforms.

Enhedslisten has demanded that Thorning-Schmidt give voters some answers before a new S-R government is implemented.

“Many unemployed, early retirees and people on long-term sick leave have been hit hard by the government’s current reforms,” Enhedslisten spokesperson Johanne Schmidt-Nielsen told Jyllands-Posten.

“The people deserve a clear answer as to whether they will see any positive change after the next election.”

This represents the first serious attack by an ally in the election campaign, in which Enhedslisten along with SF and Alternativet will need to support Thorning-Schmidt for the red bloc to win the election.

One in four Danes are last-minute voters
Despite the campaign entering its final stage, experts predict that many voters are still undecided about which box to tick on Thursday.

According to a new study by Professor Jørgen Goul Andersen from Aalborg University, around one in four voters will wait until the last minute to make up their mind.

This follows the pattern of the 2011 elections, in which 28 percent of the voters waited until the final days of the campaign.

For this reason, Andersen believes that the many polls currently flooding the media landscape should be interpreted with caution, particularly following last month’s UK election for which a hung parliament was predicted, not the Conservative majority that ensued.

“I would be careful to assume that people have decided just yet, and I would not go and bet my money based on the polls being similar to what we will see on election day,” he told Althingi.

Talking of betting, Rasmussen remains the marginal favourite to be Danish prime minister following the election. He is a best price 4/5 while Thorning-Schmidt is available at 5/4. 

 

 





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