Sweden favourites to win Eurovision

Impressive performance on Tuesday night sees them overtake Armenia in the betting


Heading into Tuesday’s semi-final, the Armenian entry (Aram MP3 with ‘Not Alone') were favourites to win Eurovision, but after an unconvincing performance were pushed out to 4/1. Yerevan 2015 looks further away. (Photo: Hasse Ferrold)

As far as gimmicks go, Ukraine (Mariya Yaremchuk, ‘Tick-Tock’, 10/1) have got the most memorable one: a massive hamster wheel. But will it be enough to see them repeat their 2004 triumph? (Photo: Hasse Ferrold)


The new favourites are Sweden (Sanna Nielsen with ‘Undo’, 11/4), who impressed on Tuesday.  (Photo: Hasse Ferrold)

 


Viewers won’t be able to see the UK (Molly Smitten-Downes, ‘Children of the Universe’, 9/1) until Saturday's final. (Photo: Hasse Ferrold)

Also at 10/1 are Hungary (above: András Kállay Sounders, ‘Running’).  (photo: Hasse Ferrold)


While hosts Denmark (Basim, ‘Cliché Love Song’) are 20/1. Meanwhile, the big movers in the betting on Tuesday were the Dutch, who are now 8/1. (photo: Hasse Ferrold)

Community: 

Meanwhile, ahead of Tuesday’s and Thursday’s semi-finals,

 the city’s diplomatic corps took the opportunity to meet up with their representatives. Pictured here are Austrian ambassador Ernst-Peter Brezovsky (right), (photo: Hasse Ferrold)

Finnish ambassador Ann-Marie Nyross (centre), (photo: Hasse Ferrold)

Swiss ambassador Denis Feldmeyer (third left), (photo: Hasse Ferrold)

 

Belgian ambassador Pol De Witte (right), (photo: Hasse Ferrold)

and Slovenian ambassador Tone Kajzer (third left). (photo: Hasse Ferrold)

Analysis:

The Nordic countries have won three out of the last five finals, and four of the last eight, but how crucial are their close ties when it comes to the voting?

The above graph analyses the percentage of the 12-point and 10-point scores they have awarded each other since 2003, the year before jury voting was replaced by telephone voting.

And the results show that the Balkan quartet of Croatia, Serbia (with Montenegro until 2006), Slovenia and Bosnia and Herzegovina were far more partisan between 2004 and 2008 prior to the start of the financial crisis.

In fact, between 2001 and 2013, there have only been two occasions when one of the Balkan countries has awarded the other nul points.

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